Geo Alpha Climate Research Strategy

 



We will allocate a portion of our Capital Markets trading profits to advance climate-risk research—prioritising scientifically grounded, reversible climate-engineering concepts that could help manage tail risks from current warming trends.

 



Motivation


CMIP6 climate modeling scenarios pair socioeconomic storylines (SSPs) with radiative forcing levels (e.g., SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Dozens of national labs and universities run these experiments; results feed into Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments..

  • SSP2-4.5 (“middle-of-the-road”) implies forcing ~4.5 W/m² in 2100 and roughly ~2.5–3 °C global warming.
  • Current policy assessments cluster around a ~2.5–2.7 °C 2100 outcome (SSP2-4.5-like). Recent annual anomalies (2023/24) touched the upper envelope of the CMIP6 scenario bands—near SSP3-7.0 (up to 4.6 °C  global warming by 2100 )—even though multi-year means still straddle SSP2-4.5 to SSP3-7.0. Analyses by major groups (Berkeley Earth/Carbon Brief; NASA/NOAA briefings; RealClimate technical notes) all confirm this point.
  • This justifies planning for upper-bound risk while pursuing mitigation.


Impact of a SSP3-70 scenario by 2100 would lead to catastrophic consequences. 30-50% species lost, 0.8m sea level rise would displace 250m people, 30% of global land becomes uninhabitable. 1.2bn people will be in famine risk zones leading to economic collapse and Global GDP loss of 18%.


If the probability of hitting this scenario would be 1% we should be thinking of planet level hedging strategies to mitigate via research, governance and readiness. However, we are today already in this climatic environment, with recent policy landscape changes providing very little (if any) hope for optimism.


The team at Geo Alpha is expert at building complex dynamic simulations using advanced computational algorithms to capture and exploit fleeting relationships in high noise market environments. As the CEO I want to allocate some of this know how and financing it generates to helping adress one of the largest systematic risks to mankind which is happening right now, before our eyes.

 



The Geo Alpha Climate Research Strategy – Part 1: Simulation


Goal: Determine whether albedo-based interventions could act as safe, reversible, and governable tools to reduce specific climate risks—and under what conditions they should not be considered.


At the most basic level all of Earth's energy comes from the sun. When the energy from the sun hits the planet it gets absorbed. The degree by which a material on the earth’s surface absorbs this sunlight is called the “albedo”. For instance, open ocean has albedo of 0.06 meaning most of suns energy that hits the ocean gets absorbed. Ice and snow have an albedo of 0.8 meaning most of it gets reflected back.


This creates a very powerful feedback loop: more polar ice => more reflection of suns energy => colder temperatures. Less polar ice => less reflection of the suns enenrgy => hotter temperatures. These have multiplying power year on year as less ice in Year 1 leads to less sun reflectivity and warmer weather, leading to less ice being formed during the next winter leading to even less ice in Year 2. Fortunately this mechanism also works in reverse!


As such, increasing reflectivity on the arctic icecaps can have strong and cascading multiplier effects on ice formation and temperature harmonization globally.


Carefully targeted increases in reflectivity in high-leverage regions (e.g., the Arctic) could, in principle, exert amplified cooling—but come with uncertainty about regional side-effects and teleconnections. Any exploration must therefore be simulation-first and governance-led.



We should investigate the simulation space using the following steps:


  1. Build a simple polar ice albedo intervention simulator. Our basic lightweight model can be found Github and shows promise that albedo intervention may be a possible tool for reversible and safe climate regulation: https://github.com/GeoAlpha-ClimRes/Climatrix/blob/main/GA_Arctic_Albedo_Intervention_Impact_Sim_v0.1.ipynb
  2. Put together a relevant team of climate experts. Either extend this model further or work with existing large scale modeling frameworks with industry collaborators to refine this study in granular detail. Publish research in peer review journals and open the project for global multidisciplinary cooperation. Establish governance, risk and ethicks (non-negotiable) guardrails including reversibility and monitoring in place for any modelled intervention
  3. Based on the conclusions from 2 plan next steps.




The Geo Alpha Climate Research Strategy – Part 2: Laboratory studies and engagement


Contingent on Part 1 outcomes: small-scale laboratory studies, stakeholder engagement, and governance research; no outdoor trials without broad, legitimate governance and international oversight.

 



Vasily Koledov

CEO, Geo Alpha